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Re: Re: Re: Amway Sales Numbers
by Anonymous
Sorry, that was me, didn't mean to be "anon". Just an Amway hobbyist with nothing more thn publicly available data. I stopped reading because I'm sick of having to correct the same error over and over again. 1997 sales also included US$178million in Chinese sales, at wholesale, or about $245million ERP (source AAP Ltd Annual Report), so China cannot be completely excluded. 2006 Amway China sales were RMB12 billion (US$1.49 billion). I can't find 2007 figures, however media reports indicate Amway expected 10% growth, not the nearly 34% your $2 billion figure implies. You also estimate 1 billion in "new market" sales for Asia, however to the best of my knowledge the only new asian markets from 1998 to 2007 were Amway Singapore in 2003 (extremely small market) and Amway India (1998). Amway India sales for 2007 were about US$196million - so where do you get $1 billion for new asian markets? Then there's the currency issue. I checked a basket of currencies of relevance. In the last 10 years the USD has dropped 23% compared to japanese yen, 25% compared to korean won, 30% compared to swiss francs, 17% compared to chinese yuan, 17% compared to GBP. It's also dropped 34% compared to the Euro since it was introduced in 1999. Such dramatic currency shifts in the majority of Amway's markets need to be accounted for in your comparison. So the 1997 sales figures were wrong by more than 30%, the new market Asian sales figures are wrong by some 80% ($800million!), the Chinese sales are likely out by several hundred million, the collapse of the USD in the major Amway markets puts the numbers out again by up to 30% or so. Nice theory, but as you know - garbage in, garbage out. A photograph of a slide from European Leadership meeting is on Amway Watch. On that you'll find 23 yr old market Italy had 11% growth last year, 22yr old market spain had 6% growth, 16yr old Poland 30% growth, 14 yr old Czech Republic and Turkey, 32% and 33%, and 9 yr old Scandinavia 9% growth. What's more, in February Alticor actually stated that 70% of markets (39 of 55) had growth last year.
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